Thoughts on the Doomsday Clock from IPPNWC President, Dr. John Guilfoyle

The Doomsday Clock is a symbol that represents the likelihood of a human-made global catastrophe, in the opinion of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. We are the closest we have ever been. Since 1947, the clock has largely reminded us of the unparalleled threat of nuclear war which could end life as we know it in a matter of minutes. Climate crisis poses a similar threat, but one that is happening in slow motion.

As physicians, we know that peace is a pre-requisite for health. Recent events underscore this. War is so horrible. It reinforces hatred and prejudices. It curdles the milk of human kindness. It injures the mental and physical health of protagonists and victims alike.

Yet, despite the disproportionate impact on innocent women and children, the destruction of the environment and widespread disruption of daily lives, we continue to see violence as a necessary measure of national sovereignty.

In this conception of human affairs, nuclear weapons states are king among equals. They use nuclear technology to increase the destruction caused by conventional weapons. They are an exclusive club who cannot be constrained. They can and do flaunt international law and norms when it is deemed expedient. They hold the rest of humanity hostage. They are currently engaged in a nuclear arms race to create and deploy various nuclear weapons which make their use more likely.

Nuclear weapons states, and those who shelter under their umbrella, point out that these weapons prevent war. This is manifestly untrue.

The most effective way to prevent war is to remove it as an option in promoting national interests. This may seem aspirational now. But it is an idea that is at least a century old. In fact, after the WW1, President Wilson of the United States made proposals along this line. It is fundamental to the purpose of the United Nations where it is the major responsibility of the Security Council.

Yet the pathway to peace needs construction.

A key element in this pathway is the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). It’s main thrust is to make nuclear weapons illegal. It is supported by most of humanity. It is not the only stepping-stone on the pathway. There are others. Articulation and enforcement of international law to help prevent and resolve conflict before weapons are used is among them.

The TPNW is unique. Its universal ratification would set humanity on a new path.

We would have identified the negative health and environmental impact of the nuclear weapons cycle, from uranium mining to nuclear testing, on through deliberate use, to the continuing challenges of radioactive waste management.

With this treaty, we would collectively decide that this is unacceptable and will not continue.

The implications of this decision will be enormous. Putting the nuclear genie back in the bottle will require a new level in international cooperation where the health of humanity and the planet are put to the fore. This would presage the development of a capacity for collaboration and a unity of purpose that will be vital as we face the climate challenge.

Canada has yet to sign this treaty.

On the seventh anniversary of the TPNW coming into force it is time that this decision was reconsidered. An important but significant step in this regard would be to send official observers to the next Meeting of States Parties. This would involve Canada in an important dialogue and movement toward a safer and healthier world.

The current conflicts in the world will end. The protagonists will eventually come together to move forward. Yet even before these conflicts stop, we have already started an arms race that will guarantee more conflicts. Humanity has to get out of this cycle.

The dictum, if you want peace, prepare for war, is outworn. It perpetuates a model where the destruction of war in guaranteed. Rather, if we want peace, an essential prerequisite for health, we must work for peace.

The TPNW is an importance piece of this work. Now more than ever, it requires our attention and support. This will help us move the ominous second hand of the Doomsday Clock in the right direction.

Perhaps, it might even move the minute hand.

Physicians around the globe view disarmament, especially nuclear disarmament, through a health focused lens.  Specifically, for a nuclear weapons catastrophe, there is no meaningful medical response to the trauma involved and hence the crucial need to prevent such an ultimate public health disaster.   

On Jan 23, the Doomsday Clock may be set closer to midnight than ever before. It is a moment to heed all these warnings and spur on our political decision makers to take consequential action now.

Yours sincerely,

Dr John Guilfoyle, MB BCh BAO, FCFP

President, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War Canada

Update: On January 23, 2024, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced that the Doomsday Clock would remain at 90 seconds to midnight this year.